Tesco Reports FY 2010/11 Sales & Profits Tomorrow - More Red Ink at Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market

Analysis

United Kingdom-based Tesco reports its 2010/11 fiscal year preliminary sales and profits tomorrow, including what the global retailer estimates will to be a loss of about $253 million for its U.S. Fresh  Easy Neighborhood Market fresh food and grocery chain. The estimated $253 loss is the same amount Fresh & Easy last fiscal year.

Overall, Tesco plc, which has stores in 14 countries, is expected, according to a consensus estimate of financial analysts in The City, the United Kingdom's version of Wall Street, to report an around 10% rise in profits - 3.75 billion pounds ($6.1 billion) - for the fiscal year, which ended February 26, 2011.

Tomorrow's fiscal year reporting will be Tesco CEO Philip Clarke's first time facing investors, analysts and the media as the head of the world's third-largest retailer (after number one Walmart Stores, Inc. and number two Carrefour, of France), having replaced Terry Leahy as CEO in early March.

But Clarke, who's in his early 50's, is a Tesco veteran. He started with Tesco as a part-time stock clerk at age 14 and is a product of the retailer's management training program and executive succession process. Therefore, he should know the drill fairly well, even though he's only been in the corner office for seven weeks.

Before being named in June 2010 as Leahy's replacement, Clarke was Tesco's chief of international operations (Europe and Asia) and the corporate head of information technology. He's also served on Tesco's board for a number of years and continues to do so as CEO.

Speaking of Asia, which Clarke was responsible for before becoming CEO last month, the region is expected to have performed well from a fiscal-year sales growth standpoint for Tesco, when it reports tomorrow. The Asia region performance is expected to buffet what are somewhat sluggish sales growth for Tesco at home in the United Kingdom.

Sales in the United Kingdom, where Tesco is the dominant food and grocery retailer, holding a whopping 30% market share, are expected to be a bit sluggish when the retailer reports the metric for its home market tomorrow. Walmart-owned ASDA and Sainsbury's are Tesco's two leading competitors in the United Kingdom. Combined, the two chains account for about 34% of all the food and groceries sold in the nation, which is just slightly more market share than Tesco does on its own.

The United Kingdom remains crucial to Tesco though because although it's a global retailer, its home market accounts for a bit over two-thirds of total corporate revenue and profit.

In addition to fresh food and groceries, Tesco is a general merchandise retailer in Britain, selling everything (in stores and online) from clothing, books and household supplies, to consumer electronics, bicycles and, most recently, used cars, via an online website launched this month.

In the United Kingdom Tesco is also a retailer of insurance - auto, homeowners, pet, ect. - and cell phones, as well as having a strong business as a consumer mobile phone carrier company. Tesco is also a banker in Britain, with its Tesco Bank, which is one of the faster-growing financial institutions in the United Kingdom.

USA: Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market

In October 2010, when it reported its mid-fiscal-year sales and earnings numbers, Tesco said it expected to post a full-year loss for Fresh & Easy this year of about the same amount as it did the previous year - about $253 million.

Tesco reported a half-year 2010/11 loss of $159 million for Fresh & Easy USA. [See - October 5, 2010: Philip Clarke's Early Welcome to America: Tesco Logs $151 Million Half-Year Loss For Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market.]

The expected full-year loss in the $253 million range at Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market comes despite a significant increase in sales over the 2009/10 fiscal year, largely do to the opening of numerous new fresh & Easy stores.

This - significantly growing year-over-year sales without a reduction in  losses - is (or at least should be), in our analysis, a very disturbing trend for Tesco with its Fresh & Easy chain.

For example, Tesco's $253 million fiscal year 2009/10 loss for Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market was $45 million more than its 2008/09 year loss of $208 million, despite the fact Fresh & Easy opened numerous new stores in the 2009/10 period and added a substantial amount of sales. [For details see  - (fy 2009-10) April 20, 2010: Strong Group Revenue & Profit For Tesco... But $253 Million Loss at Fresh & Easy; and (fy 2008/09) April 21, 2009: Tesco PLC Reports Record Sales and Profits; But Takes £142 Million ($208.05 Million U.S.) Loss For Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA.]

The 2008/09 fiscal year was Tesco's first full-year with Fresh & Easy. The first stores were opened in November 2007.

Tesco had 50 Fresh & Easy stores open at the end of its 2008/09 fiscal year, which ended in February 2009. There were 145 Fresh & Easy units open and operating at the end of the 2010/11 fiscal year, which ended in February 2010. And at the February 26, 2011 end of Tesco's 2010/11 fiscal year, the retailer had 164 Fresh & Easy markets open.

Negative three-year performance trend

>Sales at Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market were $305 million for the 2008/09 fiscal year, with a loss of $208 million.

>Fiscal year 2009/10 sales were $544 million. Fresh & Easy lost $253 million for the year.

>Tesco reported mid-year 2010/11 sales of $388 million, with a half-year loss of $159 million.

The disturbing trend: Over the three year period, revenue has grown significantly at Fresh & Easy - but so has the loss. without any reduction in the chain's losses.

We estimate Fresh & Easy's fiscal 2010/11 full-year sales will be in the $777-$800 million range. Therefore, if our estimate is correct, and if Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market has the $250-$253 million (or even slightly less) loss Tesco has said it will report tomorrow, that means the disturbing trend of growing sales without a reduction in loss will continue to persist.

Tesco has said it will break-even with Fresh & Easy USA by the end of its 2012/13 fiscal year, which ends February 2013. That gives the retailer the rest of this year and all of 2012 - 22 months to be precise - to take the loss amount reported tomorrow for Fresh & Easy - the $253 million or so - from over $250 million zero - to break-even.

Looking at the analysis we provided above - the disturbing trend of growing sales without shrinking losses - it should be clear that in order to achieve break even in 22 months, Tesco CEO Philip Clarke and his deputy, Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market CEO Tim Mason, are going to have to pull a rabbit (Easter is this week) out of their respective hats. After all, it's rather difficult, although not impossible, to reverse the three year trend of significantly growing sales without any narrowing of loses, in under two years.

In order to do so, CEO Clarke must ask himself if Mason, who became Tesco deputy CEO in March, and the current Fresh & Easy senior management team can get it done - and Tesco's handful of outside board members and its biggest institutional investors should challenge Clarke to ask himself that - because, in our analysis, at present we see little in Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market's current overall strategy and operations - including the negative 38% margin it reported in October 2010 for the mid-fiscal-year -  that puts it on track to break even by early 2013. And the clock, which ironically is a key part of Fresh & Easy's branding and logo, is ticking rapidly to 2013.

We'll have additional coverage, analysis and commentary on Tesco's fiscal year 2010-11 results starting tomorrow, after the retailer reports.

Related Stories

December 7, 2010: Tesco Reports Solid Third Quarter Same-Store-Sales Growth For Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market

October 5, 2010: Philip Clarke's Early Welcome to America: Tesco Logs $151 Million Half-Year Loss For Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market

October 4, 2010: Tuesday's Tesco Interim Report Offers A Road Map of Sorts For the Future of Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market

April 20, 2010: Strong Group Revenue & Profit For Tesco... But $253 Million Loss at Fresh & Easy

April 19, 2010: Tesco Reports Fiscal 2009 Results on Tuesday, April 20; Estimated $250-$259 Million Loss For Fresh & Easy

April 21, 2009: Tesco PLC Reports Record Sales and Profits; But Takes £142 Million ($208.05 Million U.S.) Loss For Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA

April 20, 2009: Tesco to Report Full-Year Financials Tomorrow; We Estimate £110-£150 Million Full-Year Loss For Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market

September 30, 2008: News & Analysis: Tesco Reports Half-Year Financials; Reports Loss For Fresh & Easy USA and Sales Per Square Foot Averages

September 29, 2008: Tesco PLC to Report Interim Financials Tomorrow; Including Guidance on Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA

September 26, 2008: Tesco PLC, Fresh & Easy and the Numbers Game; Will Tesco Release Hard Numbers For Fresh & Easy Next Week? If So, Will They Be Meaningful?

Strong Group Revenue & Profit For Tesco... But $253 Million Loss at Fresh & Easy

United Kingdom-based Tesco plc today reported strong overall group revenue and profit for its 2009/10 fiscal year, which ended on February 27, 2010.

However, the global food and general merchandise retailer reported a loss of $253 million, on sales of $544 million, for its Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA fresh foods and grocery chain for the fiscal year.

That's a loss of $45 million more than the $208 million loss Tesco reported for Fresh & Easy in its 2008/09 fiscal year. Fiscal year 2008/09 revenue for Fresh & Easy was $305 million. [Related post - April 19, 2010: Tesco Reports Fiscal 2009 Results on Tuesday, April 20; Estimated $250-$259 Million Loss For Fresh & Easy]

This higher loss is troubling for Tesco because central to its strategy for Fresh & Easy is the concept that by adding numerous additional stores fairly rapidly, which it did over the last year, and thus increasing its sales volume, it would narrow the amount of money it's losing with Fresh & Easy.

Revenue did increase considerably (as you can see above) from fiscal 2008/09 -to- 2009/10 - primarily because of the numerous (about 30) new Fresh & Easy stores opened during the period, rather than via same-store-sales growth. But rather than decreasing, the fiscal 2009/10 dollar loss amount increased in 2009/10, over 2008/09, as detailed above.

Tesco CEO Terry Leahy said today the retailer expects its fiscal year 2010/11 loss for Fresh & Easy to be about the same as the $253 million for fiscal year 2009. Leahy added he believes the losses for Fresh & Easy have peaked, meaning he doesn't expect the fiscal year 2010 loss to be higher than the $253 million. Tesco's fiscal 2010/11 year began on February 28, 2010.

The CEO also announced today that Tesco plans to open 50 new Fresh & Easy stores in fiscal year 2010/11, which started on February 28 and ends in early 2011.

Tesco: Strong group revenue and profit

Tesco plc's profit for the fiscal year rose to 2.33 billion pounds ($3.58 billion) from 2.13 billion pounds ($3.22 billion) a year earlier.

Fiscal year 2009/10 revenue increased 5.6% to 56.91 billion pounds ($87.5 billion) from 53.9 billion pounds ($82.82 billion) in the prior financial year, which included one extra week.

[Click here for a complete summary of Tesco's fiscal year 2009/10 financials. Click here for an interview with Tesco CEO Terry Leahy, along with a webcast of the financial results.]

Fresh & Easy Buzz will be publishing a detailed analysis piece, focusing on the Fresh & Easy loss and Tesco CEO Terry Leahy's 50% sales increase projection for fiscal year 2010/11, at the end of the week. Stay tuned.

Tesco Reports Fiscal 2009 Results on Tuesday, April 20; Estimated $250-$259 Million Loss For Fresh & Easy

Fresh & Easy's parent company, United Kingdom-based Tesco plc, is set to report its fiscal year 2009 sales and profits tomorrow, Tuesday, April 20.

The global retailer will likely report a full-year loss of about $250-$259 million for its Southern California-based Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market fresh foods and grocery chain.

Tesco offered the $259 million top-end loss estimate for Fresh & Easy months ago.

Offering the loss estimate was a smart move on the part of Tesco since, in our analysis, it serves as a form of inoculation, which we predict will serve to take some sting out of the media reports tomorrow and the days to follow on what is a significant loss at Fresh & Easy.

Fresh & Easy by the numbers

However, if Tesco reports a loss for Fresh & Easy that's much higher than the estimated $259 million - say even $5 million -to- $10 million higher - that will be, in our analysis, very bad news for the global retailing giant.

We don't suspect that to be the case though. Rather, we estimate the global retailer will report a slightly lower number than the estimated $259 million for its Fresh & Easy chain, which will have 159 stores in California, Nevada and Arizona at the end of April.

Either way - slightly more than $259 million or slightly less - right now we don't see much daylight for Tesco in the next year in terms of significantly reducing its losses with Fresh & Easy. Based on the chain's performance to date, we anticipate similar losses for its 2010 fiscal year.

Tesco plc's 2009 fiscal year ended in February 27, 2010.

It reported a loss of $208.05 million for Fresh & Easy in its 2008 fiscal year.

We estimate Tesco has lost at least $700 million so far on Fresh & Easy. Tesco set up shop in the U.S. in 2006. The first Fresh & Easy stores opened in November 2007.

Net positive fiscal 2009 for Tesco

In terms of its overall reporting tomorrow, most financial analysts that follow Tesco plc are expecting positive results.

Consensus estimates by London and Wall Street stock analysts are that it will report a strong, year-over-year (2009 over 2008) sales increase of 9%, and a pre-tax profit rise of just over 6%.

Tesco could also report tomorrow that it has reduced its substantial corporate debt significantly. For the past year the retailer has been selling some of its UK stores and then leasing them back in a program designed to generate capital and reduce debt

Tesco plc, which is the third-largest global retailing chain based on annual gross sales, derives 70% of its profits from its UK stores. It's the leading food and general merchandise retailer in the UK, with a 31% market share.

It's also a major player in the retail banking, insurance and mobile phone sectors in the UK.

Limited reporting data for Fresh & Easy

Don't look for Tesco to report many specifics (key indicators) - such as same-store-sales (like-for-like in the UK) or gross margin - about Fresh & Easy tomorrow - other than the overall total dollar loss amount for the fiscal year.

Fresh & Easy Buzz will be offering some analysis on Tesco and Fresh & Easy after the retailer's reporting on Tuesday. Stay tuned.

News & Analysis: Tesco Reports Half-Year Financials; Reports Loss For Fresh & Easy USA and Sales Per Square Foot Averages

United Kingdom-based Tesco PLC, which owns and operates Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA, reported today its interim (half-year) net income rose 11% to 1.04 billion pounds ($1.9 million) in the six months ended August 23, from 936 million pounds a year earlier.

The gain was the smallest for Tesco since 2001. However it out-performed the estimates of most financial analysts who follow the global retailer. Citibank, which we quoted here yesterday, pegged the 11% number ahead of today's reporting. Tesco PLC stock added 4.8% in trading today on the London Stock Exchange on its report of the 11% gain in half-year net income.

Sales excluding value-added tax increased 13 percent to 25.6 billion pounds, Tesco said. However, non-food same-store sales growth in the U.K., Tesco's number one trading region, slowed to 4 percent from 8 percent in the second half of last year.

You can view Tesco PLC's complete half-year financial report here.

Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA

Tesco reported sales and profit/loss numbers for its small-format Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market combination grocery and fresh foods retailing chain today for the first time since launching the venture in the Western U.S. states of California, Nevada and Arizona.

Tesco reported sales of 76 million pounds ($150 million) for Fresh & Easy, which currently operates 90 stores in the Western U.S.

Tesco reported a loss for Fresh & Easy of 60 million pounds ($118 million), based on a 9 month trading period. The first Fresh & Easy store opened in late October, 2007 in Hemet, California. Therefore, using November 1, 2007 as a fair start date, Fresh & Easy stores have been trading for an actual 11 months total. Tesco however used a 9 month period based on its half-year fiscal analysis.

Here's how Tesco reported Fresh & Easy's sales and income loss in the report today:

"A segmental report on the United States is included in International for the first time with these results. US sales and initial trading losses were previously reported within the UK segment. Fresh & Easy had no stores trading during the first half of last year so comparatives are available only in respect of start-up losses in 2007/8. US sales were £76m in the first half and trading losses were £60m, (last year trading losses were £17m). These planned losses reflect the fact that the US business – which has been trading for nine months – has been built with the necessary infrastructure in place from the beginning to support hundreds of stores. At this stage, it is therefore operating with high overhead and other costs in relation to the scale of the business, whilst also trading from immature stores."

Andrew Higginson, Tesco PLC's chief financial officer, said today in a statement he expects Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA to break even by the next fiscal year.

Tesco also released some additional sales data today for Fresh & Easy.

Tesco said the average Fresh & Easy store is trading at $11 per square foot per week. According to the Food Marketing Institute (FMI) , the major U.S. food and grocery retailing trade association, U.S. supermarket industry average sales per square foot are $11.27 (2007 figure).

Tesco also said its best performing Fresh & Easy stores are trading at more than $25 per square foot per week. However, there's no mention if "best performing stores" means 2 stores, 5 stores, 10 or 25 "best stores." Therefore it's not a very meaningful number in terms of comparing it to the $11 per square foot sales average. Obviously it can't be more than a handful of stores. If so, the $11 average number would therefore be higher.

Additionally, Tesco said Fresh & Easy stores that have opened since spring, 2008 "also appear" to be performing above the average, at $13 per square foot per week.

Fresh & Easy Buzz has previously reported, based on information from sources, that a few of the Fresh & Easy Stores, such as the Manhattan Beach, California unit which opened on July 2 and a couple others opened after that this summer, are averaging about 200,000 in weekly sales. However, that's far from the $25 per square foot per store sales Tesco reported "some" of its best stores are doing. Perhaps we've missed those stores?

However, the $13 per square foot per store number fits with those handful of stores, like Manhattan Beach, our sources tell us are doing in the $200,000 per week average range. However, our information is that those stores are units opened this summer after July rather than in the spring as Tesco reports. Perhaps we've missed a couple of those stores as well?

Mike Dennis, an analyst at the Piper Jaffray-UK investment firm who follows Tesco PLC and has been closely following Fresh & Easy since Tesco set up shop in Southern California about three year's ago, said about the reported $118 million loss for Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market: "The interesting point on US losses was the $118 million loss could be $25m start-up and $93m trading losses which if right would imply negative margins of 62% obviously due to discounting and lack of op leverage on high depot fixed costs." By depot he is referring to the 800,000-plus square foot Fresh & Easy distribution center in Riverside County, (Southern) California.

"I assume to get to $200m FY (fiscal year) loss (breaking even by the fiscal year as Tesco CFO Andrew Higginson suggest will occur) they (Tesco) will need to do a sale and leaseback on (the) Riverside (County) depot," Dennis added.

Tesco analyst Dennis also says the idea the $11 sales per square foot per store Tesco reported for Fresh & Easy "is good is laughable" because rather than benchmark the sales strictly based on supermarket (like Vons and Albertsons, two chains in Southern California) format average sales per square foot ($11.27 according to FMI), it should be measured closer to convenience store (because the Fresh & Easy stores are a hybrid grocery and convenience-oriented format) sales per square foot, which are higher than supermarket averages.

Fresh & Easy Buzz's most recent sales per square foot estimate for Tesco's Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market essentially matches the $11 per square foot per store number reported today by Tesco PLC.

Our most current average per store sales estimate range for Fresh & Easy is 125,000 -to- 150,000, with our average per store sales estimate single figure at $130,000

Fresh & Easy stores range in size from 10,000 -to- 13,500 square feet. If you pick the mid-range square footage number between that store average range and multiple it by $11 (sales) per square foot, you will see we are right in the ballgame with our numbers. For example, using 11,500 square feet as the mid-range, and $11 sales per square foot, the total is $126,500 in average weekly sales. Our estimate is $130,000, within a range of $125,000 -to- $150,000.

Not only is Fresh & Easy Buzz the only publication (that we can find) that's gone out on the limb to offer such an estimate in recent times, we're obviously pleased with its accuracy.

In fact, you can read this piece from yesterday, "Tesco PLC to Report Interim Financials Tomorrow; Including Guidance on Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market USA,," in which we published our sales estimates. We also published our estimates in this September 26 piece, "Tesco PLC, Fresh & Easy and the Numbers Game; Will Tesco Release Hard Numbers For Fresh & Easy Next Week? If So, Will They Be Meaningful?." We've published the estimates in a number of other stories prior to September 26 as well.

Tesco's original average per store weekly sales target for its Fresh & Easy stores for this point in time was about $200,000, rather than the current numbers.

While current average sales are a considerable shortfall from that target, they are much better that what the stores were averaging in the first quarter of this year. At that time our estimate was sales of about $70,000 -to- $100,000. At current averages of say between $120,000 to- $130,000 it's a considerable improvement.

However, it's our analysis a significant portion of that sales lift has come from Tesco Fresh & Easy's aggressive use of its deep discount $5-off coupons, which can be redeemed for full face value by shoppers on purchases of $20 or more in the stores. That deep discount amounts to a whopping 25%-off on a $20 grocery purchase.

These coupons are mass-mailed to residences and handled out in the stores in multiples to customers. They also are used frequently by shoppers. Tesco has been using them since the stores first opened last year.

It's our analysis the aggressive use of the deep-discount coupons has provided an "artificial" sales lift to the Fresh & Easy numbers, well beyond the type of lift average supermarket chains get from coupon use and redemption.

We aren't going to quantify the percentage of the sales lift attributable to the aggressive use of the deep discount coupons since we don't have sufficient information at present to do so in our estimation.

However, the coupon use is significant -- and it's our analysis if the 25% deep discount value coupons were either reduced by say 50% (which would still be a deep discount compared to what competitors offer) or eliminated completely (very few U.S. retailers use such coupons on any regular basis, let alone for nearly a year like Fresh & Easy has been doing) there would be a significant shortfall in the grocery chain's current $11 per store per square foot average sales number.

But in the longer view, Tesco's Fresh & Easy certainly is doing far better than many other analysts have suggested. Since our most recent sales estimates are in line with today's reported numbers for Fresh & Easy, we've been far less likely to sound the third alarm bell -- maybe 1.5 at this point in time -- like a number of other analysts have been continually doing.

However, that doesn't mean it's our analysis Fresh & Easy is on solid footing. Far from it. For example, we disagree with Tesco's chief financial officer that the company will likely break even in the next fiscal year. Maybe. But we doubt it.

We disagree for a number of reasons, but chiefly because starting next year Tesco will enter the Northern California market, opening a distribution center and the first of what so far are about 45 -to- 50 stores, some confirmed by the retailer and others we've identified in our reporting. (This doesn't include the Bakersfield and Fresno region stores set to begin opening next year in the Central Valley.)

Northern California is a very different market in many qualitative ways than Southern California, Southern Nevada and the Phoenix, Arizona Metropolitan region, where the current Fresh & Easy stores are operating.

In our analysis, Tesco will find itself burning up far more investment money (on a per-capita basis at retail) in entering and operating in the Northern California market (San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento/Vacaville Metropolitan region) than it has so far in its retail operations and marketing/merchandising (we aren't talking about start-up costs for distribution, ect.) in its current three market regions.

We will save our extensive analysis of the reasons why this will likely be the case for another time -- and for another piece devoted exclusively to that topic.

For now, suffice to say the competition for Fresh & Easy will be stronger and more varied in Northern California, the consumer base is qualitatively different, and the external issues are much more difficult for a retailer to deal with than is the case in Southern California, Nevada and Arizona.

As a result, we doubt Tesco will see break even as soon as the fiscal year.

On the other hand, we suggest those who continue to count Tesco out with Fresh & Easy do so at their own peril, so to speak.

If Tesco's Fresh & Easy can execute its operations better, improve its merchandising and marketing significantly, and stop having such high employee turnover in key areas like corporate merchandising and buying (along with doing a few other things differently and better), there are a number of current trends in Western U.S. food and grocery retailing (and externally) that suggest a smart, savvy, well positioned small-format grocery chain could do extremely well.

For Tesco's Fresh & Easy, time -- and those improvements and changes -- will tell.